The Transmissibility of the Delta Variant

Philippe Lemoine has a new post on the transmissibility of the COVID-19 Delta variant, arguing that the data do not support claims made by many epidemiologists and journalists that it is more than twice as transmissible as the original strain of the virus. Scientists made similar mistakes when their attention was focused on the Alpha variant, which, like Delta, saw its advantage over previous strains and overall reproduction number decline as it spread. Lemoine presents a new theory that, unlike standard methods, can explain this pattern.

In contrast, the methodology that scholars have used has the risk of always finding patterns in a process that is random.

See here for the article, and Lemoine’s Twitter thread summarizing his findings.