The Le Pen Curse, with Philippe Lemoine
Forecasting the French presidential election, and the science of far right politics
This week, Philippe Lemoine returns to the CSPI Podcast to discuss his prediction for the 2022 French Presidential election. This episode was recorded on April 22nd, two days before Macron’s victory on April 24th, because Philippe was so confident in his forecast that he didn’t think it was necessary to wait until after the election to discuss the results.
He and Richard talk about the differences between French and American politics, right-wing ideology in France, class and age as predictors of voting for conservative candidates, and why Éric Zemmour’s campaign failed. They also discuss how best to think about the behavior of low information voters, why the far right doesn’t win French presidential elections despite strong anti-immigration sentiment among the public, and how people who criticize the Islamic veil are actually being PC. Philippe explains why Le Pen staying in politics means the Right can never win the French presidency, and the two conclude by discussing what to expect from Macron over the next five years.
A transcript of some of the best parts of the conversation is available here.
Click here to listen in podcast form, or watch at the YouTube link below.
On another note, Philippe is coming to The University of Texas at Austin this Wednesday, April 27th at 4:00 PM to give a talk on the failures of epidemiological modeling during the pandemic. The event is being hosted by the Salem Center for Policy, which helps students and business leaders use data science to understand the costs, benefits, and consequences of policy decisions.
If you’re in Austin, come see Philippe in person this Wednesday. You can also watch his talk live via Zoom. See here for the address information and Zoom link.